V1man;294261 wrote:
I'll go out on a limb this evening and suggest that we'll see an audience of +/- 200K from a 2.2M Nielsen number. At least I hope the number is that robust.

I don't think you are out on a limb. I am expecting in the 2.2-2.3 number. I could see it going higher, but I would be shocked if it went below 2.1.

OrangeStar;294269 wrote:
I'll go with a 1.6 rating in the 14-49 group.

I think you mean the 18 - 49 demographic that Nielsen generally reports the next day and is available at TV Ratings, TV Nielsen Ratings, Television Show Ratings | TVbytheNumbers.com and Media Life Magazine. There is also an 18 - 34 demo that appeals to a specific group of advertisers, but that number generally requires a large payment to Nielsen to get it. It is not generally released (unless MTV puts it in a press release because it is astonishing).

FishHooks;294271 wrote:
I don't think you are out on a limb. I am expecting in the 2.2-2.3 number. I could see it going higher, but I would be shocked if it went below 2.1.

By "out on a limb" I'm referring to the fact that I'm willing to make any prediction at all -- something I almost never do. The number itself is simply a WAG.

V1man;294274 wrote:
I think you mean the 18 - 49 demographic that Nielsen generally reports the next day and is available at TV Ratings, TV Nielsen Ratings, Television Show Ratings | TVbytheNumbers.com and Media Life Magazine. There is also an 18 - 34 demo that appeals to a specific group of advertisers, but that number generally requires a large payment to Nielsen to get it. It is not generally released (unless MTV puts it in a press release because it is astonishing).

You're certainly correct, I'm referring to the rating in the 18-49 demo. I'm visiting tvbythenumbers on a regular basis and still mix up those numbers :D

1.4 for me with the generally 18-49 we get. I hope the show does better or picks up an audience. I feel the advertising has been good for this season. I wouldn't have been aware of the pre-game stuff if I wasn't a hardcore fan and fished for information frequently. In fact I didn't hear about it until maybe two days before it aired and that was probably from twitter, it was really low key.

Don't get dissappointed it won't reach 2 million or a 2.2 sorry to be Debbie Downer but a challenge hasn't premiered at 2 million since like The Duel.

LaneV95;294286 wrote:
Don't get dissappointed it won't reach 2 million or a 2.2 sorry to be Debbie Downer but a challenge hasn't premiered at 2 million since like The Duel.

The Rivals Finale had 2.4 million viewers. They are going to carry that momentum into the first episode of this season most likely. I estimate 2.1 million viewers for the first episode and depending on how good the episode is it will either remain constant or drop off.

I'd personally be surprised to see anything over 2 million.

Got to factor in the possible relationship with Real World though. San Diego set the bar back big time. Some of that could translate to the challenge. Vegas had good ratings and much of that seemed to migrate over to Rivals.

Calinks;294289 wrote:
Got to factor in the possible relationship with Real World though. San Diego set the bar back big time. Some of that could translate to the challenge. Vegas had good ratings and much of that seemed to migrate over to Rivals.

Yeah but Zito will bring in a small army of haters from the gay community who will want to restart their efforts to ruin him and that Fratpad past has been part of the ads this week. (Neilson counts haters the same as superfreaks). They seem to be advertising this season a lot and there seems to be some more print press than usual.

I just hope this season gets the kind of ratings RW: B2LV got. This season does look good and I hope the ratings show it. I'm not ready for my favorite TV show of all time to die just yet.

I'm surprised anyone could not have known the pre-game was coming on. I set mine to record all new episodes over a month ago and the DVR automatically picked that up. I guess most people don't plan their TV viewing a couple of months in advance, even if they specifically know there's something they're interested in? (In my case, I start checking for new RW/Challenge stuff as soon as current season concludes)

Well, no one in my personal TV circle even has a DVR. My closest friend who watches these pretty much watches everything online. I catch the shows on TV. Seeing as I follow challenge stuff all year round lately I got wind of it the pre-game. If I hadn't been following people and or listening to podcast I don't think I would have seen it until a repeat showed up while I was perusing channels or something.

Calinks;294589 wrote:
Well, no one in my personal TV circle even has a DVR.

Yikes! I haven't been without a DVR for over a decade. I'd never go back to the dark ages of live television...

Bacchus;294597 wrote:
Yikes! I haven't been without a DVR for over a decade. I'd never go back to the dark ages of live television...

Live? With commercials? ...shudder....

1.2 rating in the 18-49 demo with 1.908 million viewers. via

Edit: You beat me, Nightwolf :D Three people posting the number within two minutes, seems like a record...and it also seems that I have been too optimistic with regards to the 18-49 share - well, let's see how the numbers will be next week.

Not bad.

Slightly below my prediction... darn! Here's the "challenge"with the numbers: 1. 10 PM Wednesdays is turning out to be tough for MTV, given the counter-programming by other cable outlets. Other networks have stolen segments of the old RW/RR/Challenge audience and those people do not appear to be returning. The audience, like many vets, appear to be gone forever. 2. Given the massive (for MTV) social networking PR campaign undertaken for this challenge, a 1.9M result on "opening night" must be very disappointing to all. I'm disappointed.

It's the best Challenge season premiere ratings in a while. It beat Rivals, Cutthroat, FM2, The Duel 2, Ruins, Island and so on. I thought it would do worse. Second best cable showing of the night. Not something to be disappointed on but we'll see how the ratings go next week and the weeks to follow.

Also with that mess that was RW: San Diego I expected people to forget about the premiere date.

V1man;294609 wrote:
Slightly below my prediction... darn! Here's the "challenge"with the numbers: 1. 10 PM Wednesdays is turning out to be tough for MTV, given the counter-programming by other cable outlets. Other networks have stolen segments of the old RW/RR/Challenge audience and those people do not appear to be returning. The audience, like many vets, appear to be gone forever. 2. Given the massive (for MTV) social networking PR campaign undertaken for this challenge, a 1.9M result on "opening night" must be very disappointing to all. I'm disappointed.

So does this season have to do BETTER than Rivals to get renewed?

1.2 being second place... man.... what was going on Wednesday. Still, at least it beat everything except one show, Dog, who I thought ended his show a long time ago. Let's hope things go up and not down next week.

Bacchus;294597 wrote:
Yikes! I haven't been without a DVR for over a decade. I'd never go back to the dark ages of live television...

Yea, was going to get one a few years back through the cable company but the price they were charging for it was flat out offensive to me. After that I just kind of dropped the idea of getting one and never looked for a cheaper alternative.

Nightwolf;294613 wrote:
So does this season have to do BETTER than Rivals to get renewed?

Reality shows are dirt cheap for the channels. This means reality shows have to do less than the average scripted show to get MTV money. Money + Endorsement means renewal. If BOTE gets more than atleast a .8 it should have good chances to get renewed. But it's not a sure thing. But it doesn't need to do better than Rivals just better than shows like Beavis and ************ Vibes/Caged/etc. all those reality shows(Even though first two aren't). But Teen Mom and Jersey Shore will be pretty much unbeatable. Right now BOTE is the third best reality show behind Jersey Shore and Teen Mom 2.

LaneV95;294621 wrote:
Reality shows are dirt cheap for the channels. This means reality shows have to do less than the average scripted show to get MTV money. Money + Endorsement means renewal. If BOTE gets more than atleast a .8 it should have good chances to get renewed. But it's not a sure thing. But it doesn't need to do better than Rivals just better than shows like Beavis and ************ Vibes/Caged/etc. all those reality shows(Even though first two aren't). But Teen Mom and Jersey Shore will be pretty much unbeatable. Right now BOTE is the third best reality show behind Jersey Shore and Teen Mom 2.

Yea but the challenges cost more to make than TM2 and JS. With the weekly paychecks, the mansions, the challenge/elimination setting, and of course the prize money; so ratings may be good but i don't think the challenges are cheap at all.

jesses_girl;294623 wrote:
Yea but the challenges cost more to make than TM2 and JS. With the weekly paychecks, the mansions, the challenge/elimination setting, and of course the prize money; so ratings may be good but i don't think the challenges are cheap at all.

Actually you are forgetting the paychecks of the people who are on TM2 and JS. Everyone on Jersey Shore gets a million an episode. (I read on Celebrity networth). And Teen mom they get 250,000 for a season I think. On the challenge they get maybe a couple thousand. All in all BOTE is cheaper than let's say the MTV show Awkward.

LaneV95;294625 wrote:
Actually you are forgetting the paychecks of the people who are on TM2 and JS. Everyone on Jersey Shore gets a million an episode. (I read on Celebrity networth). And Teen mom they get 250,000 for a season I think. On the challenge they get maybe a couple thousand. All in all BOTE is cheaper than let's say the MTV show Awkward.

I don't really know about that. It takes a lot more than what you are probably thinking to produce the challenges. You have to think of all the crew that work countless hours, the actual challenges they have to put together, the safety cautions they have to probably get, the house they live in, air travel, etc. I would be willing to bet it cost more for the Challenge than a show like Awkward.

I'd estimate MTV pays BMP $3m for each season. I'd Imagine Awkward would be about the same.

LaneV95;294625 wrote:
Actually you are forgetting the paychecks of the people who are on TM2 and JS. Everyone on Jersey Shore gets a million an episode. (I read on Celebrity networth). And Teen mom they get 250,000 for a season I think. On the challenge they get maybe a couple thousand. All in all BOTE is cheaper than let's say the MTV show Awkward.

I doubt it. Ed burns made a feature movie recently with virtually change gathered from around his house. I imagine cheap technology has dropped the cost of shows like awkward to next to nothing compared to 10 years ago.